DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
VALID 06Z WED 12/03 - 06Z THU 13/03 2003
ISSUED: 11/03 20:17Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF DENMARK, SWEDEN, GERMANY, POLAND, THE CZECH REPUBLIC, SLOVAKIA, HUNGARY, THE UKRAINE AND BELARUS

SYNOPSIS

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ALONG A LINE FROM THE NORTHERN BALTIC STATES OVER SOUTHERN SCANDINVIA TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN BRITISH ISLES AT 06. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH A COLD FRONT IS PRESENT. THE TROUGH AND FRONTAL ZONE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL EUROPE DURING THE DAY. WITHIN THE POLAR AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT SOME SHOWERS WILL FORM THAT ARE LIKELY TO BE THUNDERY IN PLACES, ESPECIALLY NEAR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOME DISTANCE BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGH. GIVEN THE LOW INSTABILITY AND LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE IBERIAN PENINSULA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT WILL LIKELY NOT CAUSE DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE IBERIAN PENINSULA DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

DISCUSSION

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